SEMI Reports Typical Q1 2025 Semiconductor Seasonality with Potential for Atypical Shifts Due to Tariff Uncertainty

Demand for AI and Data Center Technologies Remains Positive, While Other Segments May Experience Delayed Investment or Demand Shifts

MILPITAS, Calif., May 19, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- According to the Q1 2025 Semiconductor Manufacturing Monitor (SMM) Report released by SEMI in collaboration with TechInsights, the global semiconductor manufacturing industry entered 2025 with typical seasonal patterns. However, looming tariff threats and evolving supply chain strategies are expected to create atypical seasonality for several industry segments as the year progresses.

Despite heightened trade policy risks, current data for the first quarter of 2025 indicate that electronics and integrated circuit (IC) sales have not been directly impacted by the newly announced tariffs. Electronics sales declined 16% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in Q1 2025 and remained flat year-over-year (YoY), consistent with traditional seasonal patterns. IC sales contracted by 2% QoQ but posted a robust 23% YoY increase, reflecting ongoing investment in AI and high-performance computing infrastructure.

"While the first quarter of 2025 did not see a direct impact from new tariffs on electronics and IC sales, the uncertainty around global trade policies is prompting some companies to accelerate shipments and others to pause investments," said Clark Tseng, Senior Director of Market Intelligence at SEMI. "This push-pull dynamic could lead to atypical seasonality for the remainder of the year as the industry adapts to shifting supply chain and tariff landscapes."

Semiconductor capital expenditures (CapEx) declined 7% QoQ but surged 27% YoY, as manufacturers continued to invest heavily in leading-edge logic, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced packaging to support AI-driven applications. Memory-related CapEx soared 57% YoY in Q1 2025, while non-memory CapEx expanded by 15% YoY, underscoring the industry's focus on innovation and resilience.

Wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending rose 19% year-over-year in Q1 2025 and is projected to increase another 12% in Q2, driven by strong investments in advanced logic and memory production to support the rapid adoption of AI semiconductors. Test equipment billings surged 56% year-over-year in Q1 and are expected to grow by 53% in Q2, reflecting the heightened complexity and stringent performance requirements of AI and HBM chip testing. Assembly and packaging equipment also registered double-digit growth, benefiting from the industry's push toward higher-density integration and advanced packaging solutions.

"The WFE market is poised for steady growth driven by government investments and semiconductor advancements, particularly in AI and emerging technologies," said Boris Metodiev, Director of Market Analysis at TechInsights. "However, geopolitical uncertainties, including export restrictions and potential tariffs, pose significant risks that could impact this positive trajectory."

Aligned with the growth in capital equipment investments, global installed wafer fab capacity is on the rise and is projected to surpass 42.5 million wafers per quarter (in 300mm wafer equivalents), reflecting a 2% QoQ and 7% YoY increase in Q1 2025. China continues to lead all regions in capacity expansion, though the pace of growth is expected to moderate in the coming quarters. Notably, Japan and Taiwan are experiencing the strongest quarterly capacity gains, driven by significant investments in power semiconductor manufacturing in Japan and the ramp-up of a leading-edge foundry in Taiwan.

Looking ahead, SEMI and TechInsights expect the industry to experience atypical seasonal patterns in 2025 as companies navigate the dual challenges of trade policy uncertainty and supply chain adaptation. While demand for AI and data center technologies remains a bright spot, other segments may see delayed investment or demand shifts as the market responds to evolving tariff and geopolitical uncertainties.

The Semiconductor Manufacturing Monitor (SMM) report provides end-to-end data on the worldwide semiconductor manufacturing industry. The report highlights key trends based on industry indicators including capital equipment, fab capacity, and semiconductor and electronics sales, and includes a capital equipment market forecast. The SMM report also contains two years of quarterly data and a one-quarter outlook for the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain including leading IDM, fabless, foundry, and OSAT companies. An SMM subscription includes quarterly reports.

Download a sample Semiconductor Manufacturing Monitor report.

For more information on the report or to subscribe, please contact the SEMI Market Intelligence Team at mktstats@semi.org. Details on SEMI market data are available at SEMI Market Data.  

About SEMI

SEMI^® is the global industry association connecting over 3,000 member companies and 1.5 million professionals worldwide across the semiconductor and electronics design and manufacturing supply chain. We accelerate member collaboration on solutions to top industry challenges through Advocacy, Workforce Development, Sustainability, Supply Chain Management and other programs. Our SEMICON^® expositions and events, technology communities, standards and market intelligence help advance our members' business growth and innovations in design, devices, equipment, materials, services and software, enabling smarter, faster, more secure electronics. Visit www.semi.org, contact a regional office, and connect with SEMI on LinkedIn and X to learn more.

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Phone: 1.831.889.3800
Email: sgutierrez@semi.org

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