Correction in Uncertainty Intervals for Cumulative COVID-19 Death Forecasts in Europe

News provided by

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

08 Apr, 2020, 03:26 GMT

SEATTLE, April 8, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington released the following statement:

An unintentional upload error to our data visualization tool has resulted in IHME issuing incorrect ranges of cumulative deaths in Europe related to COVID-19 in an April 7 press release and on its website. Specifically, the error was associated with the range of possible numbers of cumulative deaths over the course of the pandemic – from the Institute's lowest expected number of cumulative deaths, the "mean" or likely number of potential deaths, and the highest number of cumulative deaths. The figures in the visualization for the range of daily deaths, hospitalizations, ICU bed-days and ventilator need are correct.  IHME regrets the data upload error.

The projected deaths below provide the correct ranges. IHME will continue to update hospital usage, ventilator usage and projected deaths on a daily basis.

Upcoming forecasts will reflect our corrected approach. Please visit healthdata.org for information.

Location

Mean

Lower

Upper

Austria

385

238

770

Belgium

3546

2024

6232

Bulgaria

303

79

1146

Croatia

166

49

854

Cyprus

54

16

131

Czechia

411

120

1704

Denmark

529

242

1279

Estonia

484

51

2071

Finland

225

56

721

France

15058

9401

27727

Germany

8802

2255

23727

Greece

457

155

1141

Hungary

477

104

1686

Ireland

401

208

626

Italy

20300

18531

22824

Latvia

125

6

858

Lithuania

104

27

445

Luxembourg

69

41

191

Malta

19

1

112

Netherlands

5808

2358

19173

Norway

669

164

1104

Poland

1953

392

6504

Portugal

471

348

765

Romania

804

267

2541

Slovakia

251

13

2015

Slovenia

104

43

424

Spain

19209

14605

30616

Sweden

4182

801

4724

United Kingdom

66314

14573

219211

Contact: media@healthdata.org 
For Italy: Gianluca Giansante, Gianluca.giansante@cominandpartners.com, +39 3409017753 
Orsola Randi, orsola.randi@cominandpartners.com, +39 3393273672 
For Spain: Andrea Joseph, andreamarianajoseph1@gmail.com, +54 91159790368 
For UK and other European nations: Oliver Courtney, oliver.courtney@digacommunications.com, +44 7815731889 
Jon Date, jon.date@digacommunications.com, +44 7533011983

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