Key to predicting future trends in Big Pharma deal-making is reviewing the peer set's most recent activity. Between 2011 and 2015, Big Pharma - a peer set of approximately 16 firms across the world with large R&D and sales organizations, and sales valued at $10bn or more - signed over 1,100 drug-focused deals, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 10%. Overall, Big Pharma represented the majority of the monetary value of all biopharma partnerships: the peer group was responsible for $133bn of deal-making during the five-year period versus the $254bn in all comparable biopharma alliances (including the Big Pharma peer set).
As of mid-2015, Big Pharma companies had in the pipeline for cancer approximately 279 candidates, which is well over two times that of any other therapeutic area. This was reflected in deal-making; between 2011 and 2015, nearly two-thirds of Big Pharma's in- and out-licensing deals were in oncology, and immuno-oncology was the key driver of oncology in-licensing.
This report addresses the following questions:
- Who are the top Big Pharma dealmakers by volume, and how does their in-licensing activity compare with out-licensing?
- How has the emergence of immuno-oncology affected overall oncology dealmaking and values?
- Besides oncology, what therapeutic areas are driving Big Pharma dealmaking and why?
- What therapeutic areas and deal structures are driving Big Pharma out-licensing?
- At what stages of development does the Big Pharma peer set tend to partner, and what are the average payments per phase?
Key Topics Covered:
Key Points and Overall Totals
1. Deal volume increased but Big Pharma's overall share was small
2. Big Pharma represented the majority of deal-making spend
3. 2014 and 2015 were stand-out years in Big Pharma deal-making
Company Analysis and Case Studies
5. AstraZeneca was the leading dealmaker by overall volume within the Big Pharma peer set
6. Johnson & Johnson signed key cancer deals and formed an innovation initiative
7. Roche continued oncology momentum but deal-making showed importance of other therapeutic areas
8. Pfizer's in-licensing fluctuated while out-licensing efforts increased
9. Overall, out-licensing increased by 42% and Amgen and Eli Lilly evenly split in- and outlicensing
Therapy Area Analysis
11. Oncology dominated Big Pharma deal volume
12. Infectious disease agreements declined, but there is potential for a turnaround
13. Endocrine, metabolic, and genetic disorders gained speed
14. Oncology also led in terms of partnership dollar values
15. Oncology was also the focus of most out-licensing deals
17. Johnson & Johnson was the top dealmaker by dollars spent within the Big Pharma peer set
18. Payment metrics on deals generally increased
19. Average deal values increased
20. A higher proportion of deal value was still locked up in milestones
21. There were more than two-dozen billion-dollar deals between 2011 and 2015
22. Early-stage candidates dominated partnerships
23. Marketed drugs and Phase II candidates led in aggregate up-front payments
24. Phase II and marketed drugs tended to have higher average up-fronts
Geographic Breakdown of Deal-Making
25. Regional deal-making took off
27. R&D was the most common component of deal structures