LONDON, October 1, 2015 /PRNewswire/ --
The recent Argus Americas Petroleum Coke Summit attracted 250 delegates from over twenty countries and was held in Houston, Texas. Roskill notes that between 55% and 60% of petroleum coke produced in the USA comes from Petroleum Administration for Defence District (PADD) 3, which includes the states of Texas and Louisiana where about half US petroleum coke capacity is located.
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Crude oil prices were, understandably, a steady topic of conversation at the summit. The evolution of feedstock supply and impact of new shale crudes on cokers were discussed by Stu Ehrenreich of AMCI Group. An industry veteran, Stu has repeatedly warned that supplies of anode grade petroleum coke are tightening. Having reiterated the PADD coker capacities shown above in [Figure 1], he set out his forecasts for anode grade petroleum coke. Assuming a base case demand for calcinable petroleum coke, beginning in mid-2016 there could be a 2 to 3 year window which will see a tightening of calcinable petroleum coke supply and potential deficit which will continue to grow. Roskill notes that despite the impending shortage, some consumers were still resisting price rises in 2015, citing the depressed state of the aluminium industry. The market for this important, value-added form of petroleum coke is reviewed in detail in Roskill's new report, Petroleum Coke: Global Industry Markets and Outlook, 7th edition 2015, which sets out forecasts to 2020 for all forms of petroleum coke.
Mel Larson of KBC went on to discuss at the Petroleum Coke Summit how new US EPA rulings might affect cokers in the USA and therefore petroleum coke supplies to the world. Mark Noble of Downstream Advisors also ran a number of 'what-if' scenarios to 2035 that industry players should consider. Kerry Satterthwaite, Roskill's Division Manager for Carbon & Chemicals, discussed forecasts for the petroleum coke industry to 2020, based on Roskill's 40 years of experience in analysing this complex market, with market growth expected to average 3%py overall to 2020. This headline figure masks different growth rates for each end-use, however, with each form of petroleum coke having its own unique applications and market trends. The highest growth rates are expected for calcinable anode grades.
A primary focus of the summit was regional supply dynamics. The global industry is expected to undergo significant changes in 2015, as new sources of supply are scheduled to be commissioned and supply in China consolidates. Daniel Pechman of Pontevedra Commodities outlined the economic, political and logistical challenges that face the South American petroleum coke industry. Askin Soyer of Capex then described his company's vision of the future for Turkey. There are 69 cement plants in Turkey burning a variety of fuels, including petroleum coke and producing 108 Mt of cement in 2014.
Cement fuel sourcing was also a theme explored on the second day of the summit, with Berthold Kren of Lafarge speaking candidly about the dilemma big consumers of fuel have been faced with in 2015. Roskill notes that the cement making industry is the largest market for fuel-grade petroleum coke. The main markets are in South and Central America, Europe and India. Although China accounts for about 60% of global cement output, use of petroleum coke as a cement kiln fuel in China is rare and consumption in 2014 was only about 2.5Mt. Estimated consumption by region in this application is detailed by Roskill in its 2015 report.
Roskill's NEW 7th edition report on the petroleum coke market has just been published, addressing the key topics in this dynamic and rapidly evolving industry. If you're involved with petroleum coke, this report will help you make the right decisions. Visit http://www.roskill.com for more details, or e-mail KSatterthwaite@roskill.co.uk for further discussion.
SOURCE Roskill Information Services