India Predicted to be Fastest Growing Trade Market Till 2020 – HSBC Global Trade Forecast

MUMBAI, December 4, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --

Emerging Markets to Drive Global Trade Rebound

The HSBC Trade Forecast highlights India's critical role in world trade growth over the entire period till 2030. As per the Forecast, India represents the fastest growing import or export partner (or both) between 2013-15 or 2016-2020 for 23 markets. India's trade growth can be linked to its growing consumer wealth and emerging middle class; investment in infrastructure development; the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); its diverse range of exports and a move to produce goods higher up the value chain, and its developing role as a supply chain hub for Asia.

'Dual speed' growth driven by South-South trade

The HSBC Trade Forecast is outlining a dual speed trade rebound as South-South corridors become more established, driving growth to 2015. before being rejoined by the developed world in the later part of the decade. 

According to the HSBC Trade Forecast, powerhouses India and China will be joined by emerging trading nations including Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, Mexico and Poland to record significant trade growth in the next three years. As these economies industrialise, trade in higher value goods will increase, reflecting the greater maturity of these faster-growing economies with large populations and rapidly expanding middle-class consumer markets.

By 2020, HSBC expects that forward-thinking companies worldwide will have exploited multiple trade corridors and partnerships, created effective networked supply chains, and tightened efficiency in their operations as a result. This trend continues through 2021-30, contributing to a stabilising of trade growth which also reflects the growing maturity of emerging markets.

Key market and trade corridor trends from the HSBC Trade Forecast:

• India tops the tables for all 23 markets surveyed as either their fastest import or export growth partner out to 2020.
• Bilateral trade between China and India is set to increase significantly. India will be the fastest expanding market for Chinese products, with export growth averaging 20% a year during 2013-15 and 17% a year during 2016-20. Meanwhile, India exports to China are set to grow 23% between 2013-15 and 19% in 2016-20.
• South south trade continues to show up as a trend. Brazil's fastest growing trade partners are India, Vietnam and China and Mexico's imports from India and China will grow 13.9% and 13.4% respectively between 2016 - 2020.
• Indonesia exports to the rest of Asia (ex-Japan) are expected to grow at a solid pace of close to 10% a year over the period 2021-30. The fastest growing trade routes will be to India and China over the medium term (2013-2015), led by their insatiable demand for commodities.
• Singapore's exports to Asia (ex-Japan) are forecast to rise by a fairly robust 7% a year on average during 2021-30. But the fastest growing trade routes will be with China, India and Vietnam over this period.
• Bangladesh is forecast to develop its role linking 'emerging Asia', driven by trade growth with India throughout the period. Bangladesh's trade is expected to increase 19% between 2013-2015 and 14% between 2016 -2020.
• Malaysia is forecast to see strong growth to Latin America in the years to 2020, at approximately 9% in the period 2016-20, underpinned by a greater sophistication in the products imported by the continent, particularly in electronic goods. Malaysia's exports to Brazil are predicted to grow 14% annualised over the same period.
• Vietnam is expected to record double digit annualised trade growth throughout the forecast period 2012-30. China will have overtaken the US as Vietnam's largest export partner by 2030 but the US, Japan and Korea will remain key sources of demand for Vietnam.
• Australia's main export markets are in Asia, and this will continue. Australia's exports to Asia (ex-Japan) are forecast to grow by 6% a year in 2013-15.
• Hong Kong's total exports are forecast to double from 4.8% in 2012 to 11.4% annually throughout 2013-2015. Although China will remain Hong Kong's most important trading partner, other developing East Asian nations will become increasingly important, with exports to Vietnam set to grow by 8% a year in the decade to 2030.

HSBC Trade Confidence Index

With a score of 135, India is the most confident country according to the HSBC Trade Confidence Index. Optimism has improved in the last six months with 71% of importers and exporters surveyed expecting trade volumes to increase and another 24% anticipating business to remain at current levels. Their global outlook is more positive than other countries in the region as well with 61% of Indian traders expecting to see growth.

At the same time, however, Indian sellers are not overly confident in their overseas business partners as 43% foresee an increase in defaults. This is double what it was just six months ago. To minimise risk exposure, suppliers intend to use trade finance from banks, export credit insurance and other financial instruments. In fact, 65% of Indian businesses say they will need increased levels of trade financing in the coming months and will look to their banks first for help. Indian importers' confidence in the ability of their overseas suppliers to honour agreements is also slipping. Twelve months ago only 13% expected an increase in non-delivery while 43% do today.

Sandeep Uppal, Managing Director and Head, Commercial Banking, HSBC India said: "Given an expected pick-up in growth in India and a relatively stable global economy in the coming years, exports to all regions are expected to grow fairly robustly, helped by India's wide range of export products. These increasingly will move away from traditional goods to higher value goods and hi-tech products as India steadily develops its technology as well as manufacturing base."

Notes to Editors:

About the HSBC Trade Forecast - Modelled by Oxford Economics

Oxford Economics has tailored a unique service for HSBC which forecasts bilateral trade for total exports/imports of goods, based on HSBC's own analysis and forecasts of the world economy to generate a full bilateral set of trade flows for total imports and exports of goods, and balances between 180 pairs of countries.

Oxford Economics produces a global report for HSBC, plus regional reports and country specific reports on the following 23 countries: Hong Kong, China, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Singapore, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Canada, USA, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, UK, France, Turkey, Germany, Poland, Ireland, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.

Oxford Economics employs a global modelling framework that ensures full consistency between all economies, in part driven by trade linkages. The forecasts take into account factors such as the rate of demand growth in the destination market and the exporter's competitiveness. Exports, imports and trade balances are identified, with both historical estimates and forecasts for the periods 2013-15, 2016-20 and 2021-30.

Oxford Economics - formerly Oxford Economic Forecasting - was founded in 1981 to provide independent forecasting and analysis tailored to the needs of economists and planners in government and business. It is now one of the world's leading providers of economic analysis, advice and models, with over 500 clients. Oxford Economics commands a high degree of professional and technical expertise, both in its own staff of over 70 professionals based in Oxford, London, Belfast, Paris, the UAE, Singapore, Philadelphia and New York, and through its close links with Oxford University and a range of partner institutions in Europe and the US.

Trade Confidence Index

The HSBC Trade Confidence Index covers a total of 20 markets and is the largest trade confidence survey globally. The current survey comprises six-month views of 5,800 exporters, importers and traders from small and mid-market enterprises on: trade volume; buyer and supplier risks; the need for trade finance; access to trade finance; and the impact of foreign exchange on their businesses.

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