SAN DIEGO, July 30, 2015 /PRNewswire/ --
Now that California and Quebec have smoothly transitioned into the second phase of their cap-and-trade programs, participants have begun to take a long-term view of the market. The ICIS 2030 Forecast for California Carbon Allowances Report- Summer 2015 Update investigates how a range of supply and demand scenarios alter the price of California Carbon Allowances (CCAs) through 2030. In this report, we explore a number of potential reduction pathways for California/Quebec post-2020, discuss how economic and regulatory changes could impact the price of carbon, and examine key drivers that will shape emission reductions for each sector. Crucial to our updated forecast, we have made amendments to our behavioral assumptions (companies purchasing strategies) based on newly available data and extensive research recently conducted by ICIS analysts.
Key Findings in this Report:
- ICIS believes CCA prices will stay close to the price floor throughout the next two years, but will lift off the floor way before the fundamentals suggest
- We believe the cap post-2020 will be designed based on Governor Brown's goal of 40% below 1990 emissions levels by 2030
- A program that is best aligned with this target has become our base case scenario
- Such a stringent target and equally ambitious program design (combined with relatively high emissions) could yield a CCA price up to $70
- ICIS expects the price of CCAs to range from $40 to $70 in 2030 (based on different supply and demand scenarios)
- A detailed research on historic trading behavior of utilities triggered significant changes in our behavioral assumptions. Those are key to assess when the market turns short
- Subsequently, changes in price should alter end user behavior
- ICIS expects a shortage of offsets through 2020 and beyond
As part of the ICIS Carbon Market Analytics subscription you are entitled to the updated report, underlying data/assumptions, and the tool on our portal which allows you to combine scenarios to derive a price line.
ICIS provides information and intelligence for global carbon markets through utilizing a unique combination of quantitative and qualitative research, as well as expert opinion to deliver detailed insight into emissions and carbon trading schemes. Our Timing Impact Model is the cornerstone of our analysis and provides clients with a more rounded perspective than conventional approaches. This gives our subscribers a competitive advantage over their competitors. We offer products that cover the California/Quebec, RGGI, EU, South Korea, and China carbon markets.
ICIS has more than 30 years' experience in providing pricing information, news, analysis and consulting to buyers, sellers and analysts in the energy, chemicals and fertilizers markets. With a global staff of more than 800, ICIS has employees based in Houston, Washington, New York, London, Montpellier, Dusseldorf, Karlsruhe, Milan, Mumbai, Singapore, Guangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, Yantai, Tokyo and Perth. ICIS is a division of Reed Business Information, part of RELX Group Plc.
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For further information about this release, please contact:
Marketing Manager, ICIS