The Market for Medium and Large Hybrid and Pure Electric Buses will be Over $165 Billion in 2027
Industrial and commercial electric vehicles will be a similar market to cars but innovating faster and frequently more profitable for all in the value chain. The most important sector is buses, the subject of this report, where innovation often comes before cars because they are less price sensitive.
In this report we show how the Chinese are now dominating the league table, buying the most buses and innovating rapidly already creating the lowest cost base by far. We examine the different power trains and the move from chassis to integrated manufacture often with no chassis and later structural electronics as bodywork will come. Technological roadmaps show the rapid innovation coming in the next decade and regional and technology sales are forecasted to 2027.
Well over 100 hybrid and pure electric bus manufacturers are appraised and regional trends revealed. Based on extensive interviews, conferences and searches in 2015-6 this unique report is the only up to date in depth appraisal of the issues and trends including a detailed look at fuel cell buses over nearly three decades identifying why further delays are risking the window of opportunity for them closing as the greener, more efficient pure electric buses prove fit for prime time and over one quarter of one million e-buses are purchased in 2026 due to both legal push and market pull.
Forecasts are for number, unit price and market value 2017-2027 by region, powertrain and pure electric vs hybrid. Over 8t and under 8t are analysed in the 265+ pages of original summary and analysis, easily grasped by those with limited time. The information has been appraised by our PhD level analysts with long experience and an intensive program of travel to check out the facts. Worldwide, over 100 manufacturers and many recent interviews are covered including EV events in Japan, Taiwan, the USA, UK and Germany in the last few months. This is essential because the subject is moving so fast with the strong technologies, regions, manufacturers etc changing rapidly.
Key Topics Covered:
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1.1. Overview 1.2. Summary of technical preferences 1.3. Statistics issues 1.4. Successful pure electric buses vs addressable market 1.5. Chinese price/performance 1.6. Projection with key orders, technology timelines 1.7. Electric bus >8t forecast by powertrain 2017-2027, number, unit value, market value 1.8. Forecast by territory for buses >8t for APAC, NA, Europe, other 1.9. Market forecast for electric buses 1.10. Market forecast for electric buses 1.11. Cost trends - China ready to pounce 1.12. Market drivers and impediments 1.13. Regional differences 1.14. China, India and cities 1.15. Radical change 1.16. Truly global market for similar buses 1.17. Large pure electric buses: first big orders 2014/5 1.18. Weak trend to larger buses but not in China 1.19. Value chain and powertrain 1.20. Hybrids becoming pure electric 1.21. Relative importance of technical options 1.22. Technology disagreement 1.23. Fuel cell buses: progress and potential 1.23.1. Use of solar on hybrid fuel cell shuttle buses 1.24. Background statistics: automotive industry and buses in general 1.24.1. Automotive industry 1.24.2. School buses 1.24.3. Largest bus manufacturers 1.24.4. Review of 2012-2014 1.25. Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles 1.26. E-bus news in 2016 1.26.1. Autonomous shuttles in Switzerland - June 2016 1.26.2. Disruptive new bus concepts in 2016 1.26.3. BYD expand electric vehicle plant in the US - September 2016 1.26.4. Lohr linked microbuses - September 2016 1.27. Buses will be taxis will be buses 1.28. The Bus of the Future
2. INTRODUCTION 2.1. Urban logistics trends 2.2. The move to electric 2.3. Motor technology by type of vehicle 2.3.2. Switched reluctance motors a disruptive traction motor technology? 2.3.3. Three ways that traction motor makers race to escape rare earths 2.4. Choice of lithium-ion batteries 2.4.1. 142 lithium battery manufacturers: chemistry, format, sales successes 2.5. Global situation: some recent highlights 2.6. North America 2.6.1. Proterra E2 logs over 600miles on a single charge - September 2016 2.7. Europe 2.7.1. UK 2.7.2. Germany 2.7.3. Sweden, Switzerland 2.7.4. ABB intermittent overhead charging 2.7.5. Turkey 2.8. Asia Pacific 2.9. Latin America 2.10. Africa/Middle East 2.11. Number of manufacturers of electric vehicles 2.12. Electrification 2.13. Drivers of change 2.14. Another supercapacitor bus stop charging system 2.15. Bus that travels above traffic - August 2016 2.16. Nine reasons why electric buses and trucks make sense for California 2.17. Huge impact of pure electric buses
3. ELECTRIC BUSES IN CHINA 3.1. China automotive industry 3.2. China bus market 3.2.1. China overall bus sales 2012-2014 3.2.2. China Light Bus Market 2013 3.2.3. China Medium Bus Market in 2013 3.2.4. China Large Bus Market 2013 3.3. Move to cleaner vehicles 3.4. Electric vehicle sales in China 2011-2014 3.4.2. Electric bus policy 3.5. Plug-in EV Sales in 2013 3.6. New Energy Vehicles NEV in 2014 3.7. Leapfrogging technology 3.8. Assessment of Chinese bus technology 3.8.1. Advanced technology in latest e-buses 3.8.2. Hiccups 3.8.3. China and rare earths 3.9. Chinese fuel cell activity: 35 organisations profiled 3.10. Chinese bus company and regional news 2014-5 3.10.1. BYD 3.10.2. BYD bus progress and plans 3.10.3. 5th New Energy Vehicle Exhibition Beijing Nov 2014
4. SURVEY OF HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS 4.1. Overview 4.2. Analysis of hybrid bus manufacturers by location 4.3. 86 hybrid bus manufacturers compared: HQ, bus and e-bus output range, images, examples and assessment.
5. SURVEY OF PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS 5.1. Overview 5.2. Analysis of pure electric bus manufacturers by location 5.3. 80 manufacturers of pure electric buses by HQ, bus and e-bus output range, images, examples and assessment 5.4. Kalsruhe Assessment of E-Buses in 2015
6. FUEL CELL BUSES: LESSONS OF 92 TRIALS 6.1. Technology 6.2. Fuel cell bus rollout as planned by Daimler in 2010 but delayed 6.3. Reasons for failure to launch 6.4. Third decade of trials 6.5. Ballard Pyrrhic victory 6.6. Fuel cell cars in trouble, holding back buses 6.7. New competitor 6.8. Window of opportunity closing 6.9. Catalog of shortcomings 6.10. Advances 6.11. Ballard approach 6.12. Fuel cell size reduces, fewer trials, no rollouts 6.13. Program slippage 6.14. US Targets 6.15. US evaluations 6.16. Key observation 6.17. Daimler program today 6.18. Justified scepticism 6.19. Hyundai progress 6.20. Fuel cell bus trials 1990-2015 6.21. Fuel cell bus trials 2011-2015 6.22. Commitment in Europe 6.23. Commitment in the USA 6.23.1. Some of the fuel cell buses currently in transit service in the US 6.23.2. Flint MTA testing Proterra hydrogen fuel cell bus prototype for one year - October 2016 6.24. Commitment in China
7. EXAMPLES OF INTERVIEWS 7.1. ALABC/ILA LondonJanuary 2016 7.2. Acal Energy UK 7.3. Aleees Taiwan 7.4. Bombardier Germany and Qualcomm USA 7.5. Ebusco Netherlands 7.6. EV Roadmap 8 USA 7.7. Green GT France 7.8. Hyundai Korea 7.9. IFEVS Italy 7.10. ITRI Taiwan 7.11. Nippon ChemiCon Japan 7.12. PowerHydrant USA 7.13. Proton Power Systems PLC, Proton Motor Fuel Cell GmbH Germany 7.14. Taiyo Yuden and JM Energy Japan 7.15. University of California DavisUSA