BREXIT Retail Forecast Report - Anticipating the Damage of Leaving the EU - Research and Markets
24 Jun, 2016, 19:10 BST
DUBLIN, June 24, 2016 /PRNewswire/ --
Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "BREXIT Forecast" company profile to their offering.
Britain's vote to leave the European Union is expected to have a severe effect on the UK's economy. While it's impossible to say exactly what this vote means for Britain's financial future, it will have a significant impact on British livelihoods.
Post Brexit growth is not something to be celebrated, because even in 2008, the year of the greatest financial crash since 1928, UK retail grew due to runaway inflation. Declines in UK retail spend are extremely rare and yet according to latest ONS data the sector is flat-lining already.
Following the Brexit vote, the second half of 2016 retail volume declines are likely. On the one hand this is a byproduct of inflation, as Sterling will come under pres- sure and most product imported from overseas (from clothing to furniture to consumer electronics) will become much more expensive - we believe that UK retailers have only hedged insufficiently. Trade barriers and tariffs might also be erected adding even more to consumer prices. Rising prices will dampen demand.
Secondly for British shoppers there is less money going round. Another round of belt tightening will be on the agenda, driven by a crash in consumer confidence, a falling housing market, more bankruptcies, unemployment going up and wages falling again.
The big unknown is what will happen to EU citizens in the UK. We would expect a substantial amount of EU citizen to leave due to employment moving abroad (banks, insurance, law firms etc). Perhaps stricter retroactive visa requirements for low paid EU staff in warehouses, factories and on farms would force many to emigrate. If this happens, from an operations standpoint there will be real headaches in the supply chain, but perhaps more importantly in terms of spend the major worry is the addressable shopping pool being shrunk. Mass EU emigration and the loss of purchasing power on a greater scale could not be offset by retailers in the UK (or by returning British ex pat OAPs from Spain).
And at this point the BoE will be forced to raise interest rates, as UK inflation starts to soar, the oil price recovers ...
Report Structure:
Executive summary - Brexit and retail - business continuity planning
Total Retail Sales - The threat of stagflation to come
Total retail sales growth: 2007/8-14/15, negative for the first time since WW2
Inflation: CPi, 2007-2015, inflation has vanished, interest rates on hold
Inflation: monthly data, if Brexit happens inflation to come back with a vengeance
Inflation: the considerable risk of stagflation post Brexit
Total retail sales: value non-seasonally adjusted - in £billions, 2007 - 17 f
Population: per capita spend 2015 (£), Brexit permanently lowering the shopper base?
Population: what will EU migrants do in case of Brexit? Workforce impact
Food & Grocery - Insulated at first, then at the mercy of the discounters
Food & Grocery: growth 2010 - 15, forecast, inflation, volume for 2016/7
Food & Grocery: in £billions 2010 - 17f, devastation of local farming, no more CAP
Food & Grocery: big 4 to suffer, discounters to win
Non-Food: clothing & footwear - Industry facing an exodus
Clothing & Footwear: Growth 2011 - 15, forecast, inflation, volume 16-17, price shock to come
Clothing & Footwear: Total sales (£m), 2011 - 17 f, the end of fast fashion?, tourism decline
Clothing & Footwear: sourcing complications outside EU, domestic revival?
Clothing & Footwear: domestic shoppers priced out, fashionista exodus, ecommerce impact
Non-Food: DIY, Furniture, Homewares - Homeowners: falling house prices and higher mortgages
The home sectors: Total growth 2010 - 15, forecast, inflation, volume 2016 - 17
The home sectors: Total sales (£m) 2011 - 17f, falling house prices, impact on banks
The home sectors: residential property to take a hit - taking down DIY along with it
Online - Going back a decade
Online: Total growth (%) 2011-2015, forecast 2016/7, potentially disastrous
Online: Total sales (£m) 2011 - 17 f, potential brain drain
Outlook - Uncertain and unnecessary
Outlook: Brexit unpractical and threatens breakup of UK
Outlook: from integration to isolation - losing decades of progress
Sources
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/f7z3nb/brexit_forecast
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SOURCE Research and Markets