LONDON, October 27, 2015 /PRNewswire/ --
The latest forecasts for advanced automotive batteries published by just-auto's QUBE automotive research service show long-term potential growth that will outstrip industry production growth.
The advanced automotive batteries (AAB) sector, comprising advanced lithium-ion and nickel metal hydride batteries, as fitted to automotive light vehicles with hybrid or pure electric drivetrains is forecast to grow at a long-term (2020-2030) CAGR of 10.8% compared to the industry comparable CAGR of a meagre 2%.
just-auto's analysts assert that the sector's growth, as with many of the automotive industry's high-growth sectors, is driven by regulatory pressures. These pressures, in the form of future CO2 targets will necessitate increased electrification of the vehicle market be it with hybrids or pure electric vehicles.
The regulatory pressures, together with mounting energy security requirements, are expected to drive the advanced battery market from just under 4% global penetration in 2015 to over 15% penetration by 2030 according to QUBE research. This will see global volume increase by 522% to 21.8 million by 2030.
As to the make-up of the future vehicle fleet that advanced batteries will supply, just-auto's car market watchers do not believe that there will be a single 'silver bullet' for electrification.
Current solutions, which include pure electric, PHEV, HEV, and mild hybrids, are dependent on vehicle usage and costs. As with other CO2 reduction technology, it is understood to be extremely difficult for all but the most cash-rich OEMs to develop all the electric technology options concurrently.
Instead, just-auto's analysts believe that most OEMs will have chosen the options that offer the greatest return in terms of CO2 reduction for the least on-cost. This explains why, analysts state, stop-start systems have become nearly ubiquitous in Europe on manual transmissions, and now increasingly on automatic transmissions. The technology especially benefits from the current European Union Drive Cycle (EUDC) but its cost-benefit advantage will be eroded by the proposed Worldwide harmonized Light vehicle Testing Cycle (WLTC) and its reduced emphasis on transient phases.
Additionally, whilst 48V mild hybrid systems have been generally accepted as the next step on the development roadmap, just-auto research suggests prospects of a 48V future is receding, based on suggestions that some OEMs are accruing similar benefits from 12V advanced stop-start featuring two batteries (lead-acid and LiIon) but at a much lower cost.
About just-auto and QUBE
just-auto.com exists to provide news, analysis and market intelligence to support the automotive industry. We are driven by a passion for an industry with a global turnover of €3 trillion that directly and indirectly supports 60 million jobs. We offer an independent voice with a global remit, championing automotive best practice wherever we find it.
In 2011 just-auto launched QUBE, the automotive database for the auto industry. Supported by a team of experienced automotive analysts, QUBE serves the automotive supply chain, providing them with OEM and supplier automotive competitive analysis, component sector forecasts, and automotive technology intelligence.
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SOURCE just-auto; QUBE