In 2028, e-scooters will dominate the small electric vehicle business followed by three-wheel micro EVs. Close behind, four wheel car-like versions and e-bikes are also set for robust sales. The basis of this unique report, putting the much vaunted e-bikes in the context of allied vehicles, is mainly research in 2017. Intensive global travel, interviews and analysis were carried out by PhD level experts. Latest conference material and presentations from across the world are shown.
Small manned electric vehicles - e-bikes to car-like micro EVs - are closely related and often sell in the largest numbers. The rag bag of names obscures the fact that they are closely related and add up to a very large market. Although car-like micro EVs are usually lower in cost than regular cars, together with two wheel EVs, they will reach over $41 billion in 2028 on analysis. Eight sub-categories are forecasted by numbers and value from 2018-2028. Golf cars are seen to be a static market, whereas e-motorcycles are at a very early stage and the others in different stages of maturity. Nearly all are pure electric using batteries as energy storage. Most are on-road vehicles so the commonality shines through.
These manned small vehicles below cars are uniquely significant in addressing megatrends and in pioneering energy independent, unlimited travel. Mobility vehicles for the disabled cope with the ageing of the population and the epidemic of obesity whereas car-like micro EVs help emerging nations be mobile and prevent air pollution. Many of these small electric vehicles act as the missing affordable transition product between an e-bike and an e-car. However, they also fill market gaps everywhere, including in developed countries where they help the small manufacturer and, often in customised form, they perform many tasks in airports, estates and elsewhere.
Micro EVs are not required to meet crash tests and other requirements of car homologation. In some countries, minors and those with no license or insurance can drive them. Embracing quad bikes, all-terrain vehicles, Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs), quadricycles in Europe, microcars and so on, they are much simpler than cars and often one tenth of the price. Micro EVs take the form of three wheelers in the main with many four wheelers. They include farmers' "cars" in China, e-tuktuks in the Philippines, where over three million polluting tuktuk taxis need replacing, and e-rickshaws in India.
The extreme lightweighting possible with these micro EVs means they are among the first categories to spawn energy independent vehicles (EIVs) that never plug in or fill up. So far, that mostly involves solar cells that are a load-bearing part of the body. This is "structural electronics" replacing the old "components-in-a-box".
Key Topics Covered:
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1.1. Forecasts for small electric vehicles 2018-2028 1.2. Reasons for growth 1.2.1. Competition and profitability 1.2.2. Opportunities 1.2.3. Typical requirement 1.3. The USA electric bicycle market 1.4. Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles 1.5. Electric vehicle end game: free non-stop road travel 1.5.1. Dynamic charging 1.5.2. Many harvests together 1.5.3. Solar roads 1.5.4. Many other options 1.5.5. AWE and bladeless wind turbines 1.5.6. Multi-mode, minimal storage 1.5.7. New storage, lightweighting, streamlining 1.5.8. Funding for development of lightweight solar modules on vehicles 1.5.9. Bottom line 1.6. Micro EV market 1.6.1. Honda Neowing concept hybrid electric tricycle announced October 2015 1.6.2. Elio Motors 1.7. News in 2016 1.7.1. E-vehicle maker Clean Motion to invest $10m in India 1.7.2. PodRide Blends Car-Like Function with Bike-Like Ride 1.7.3. Airbus creates world's first 3D-printed motorcycle 1.7.4. Victory Motorcycles aim for the podium at Isle of Man TT with an all-new electric motorcycle 1.7.5. Alta Motor 1.7.6. Performance motorcycle goes asynchronous 1.7.7. Electra Meccanica SOLO in full production July 2016 1.7.8. Silex Power announce the Valene Black Mamba three-wheeler - August 2016 1.7.9. Energica Fast Charge Infrastructure Program - September 2016 1.7.10. Union Motion unveil first prototype - November 2016 1.7.11. Electric trikes Philippines - November 2016 1.7.12. Market boost from deregulation - India, late 2016 1.8. News in 2017 1.8.1. Cake off-road motorcycle 1.8.2. Vigo Motorcycles 1.8.3. Alta Motors 1.8.4. Essence Motorcycles 1.8.5. Evoke China 1.8.6. Now scooters have regen braking 1.8.7. Japan Post and Honda 1.8.8. Helix Motors Inc 1.8.9. Harley Davidson - Project LiveWire 1.8.10. Tacita Italy 1.8.11. Vespa Elettrica Italy 1.8.12. Energica Italy 1.8.13. TAILG Electric Vehicle Co China 1.8.14. India's EV revolution will start with swappable batteries
2. CAR-LIKE VEHICLES NOT HOMOLOGATED AS CARS: MICRO EV, QUADRICYCLE, E TRIKE, NEV, GOLF CAR 2.1. Many names, common factors 2.2. Car-like vehicles that evade restrictions, taxes and other costs 2.3. Philippines delay - watch Bangladesh 2.4. Terra Motors Interview 2.4.1. Introduction 2.4.2. Latest market appraisal 2.4.3. India 2.4.4. Bangladesh 2.4.5. Vietnam 2.4.6. Philippines 2.4.7. Japan 2.4.8. Conclusion 2.4.9. History 2.5. Micro EV manufacturers 2.6. Listing of manufacturers beyond golf cars 2.7. Toyota i-ROAD e-trike is a scooter/ Micro EV crossover 2.8. Micro EV racing cars 2.9. Golf cars 2.9.1. What is included 2.9.2. Market drivers 2.9.3. Listing of manufacturers
3. LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES 3.1. Definition of a light electric vehicle 3.2. How good does it have to be? 3.3. What retail price? 3.4. What is an electric bicycle? 3.4.1. e-bikes in Europe 3.4.2. Pedelec 3.4.3. Power on Demand bikes and other categories 3.4.4. Electric vehicles for disabled and others 3.4.5. Power restriction 3.4.6. Notable regulations 3.5. Universal Technical Terms for Ebikes 3.6. Choices of LEV 3.6.1. Rocket drag bike USA 3.6.2. Ford USA 3.6.3. Grunner e-bike Croatia 3.6.4. MOAR folding e-bike USA 3.6.5. Moveo foldable scooter Hungary 3.6.6. Motorised Skateboard Yuneec China 3.6.7. Hubless Scooter E'lution EVO Australia 3.6.8. Skateboards and similar in 2015 3.6.9. VeloMetro Veemo rental hybrid 3.7. The Industry of LEVs 3.7.1. Taiwan and China 3.7.2. Outside Taiwan and China 3.7.3. Too much cost cutting 3.8. Tricycles to reduce accidents and help policing 3.8.1. Liberty Trike from Electric Bike Technologies 3.8.2. Twikke Europe
4. MOBILITY FOR THE DISABLED 4.1. The demographic time-bomb 4.1.1. Ageing population and the dependent elderly 4.1.2. Laws make mobility easier 4.2. Types of mobility vehicle 4.2.1. Growth by new market segments 4.2.2. Interchina Industry Group China 4.2.3. Solar powered power chair in 2013 4.3. Market drivers 4.3.1. Geographical distribution 4.3.2. Needs creating new segments 4.3.3. What is driving regional differences? 4.3.4. Zhejiang R&P Industry China 4.3.5. Pride Mobility, USA 4.3.6. Toyota Japan 4.3.7. Scoozy Netherlands 4.4. Listing of manufacturers
5. LEV MARKETS, MARKET DRIVERS AND FORECASTS 5.1. Markets by territory 5.1.1. China 5.1.2. Japan 5.1.3. India 5.1.4. Europe 5.1.5. USA 5.1.6. Worldwide 5.2. Markets by providers 5.3. Bicycle Brands with ebikes 5.3.1. USA 5.3.2. European Bike Brands 5.3.3. Netherlands brands: 5.4. Channels of distribution 5.5. Market forecasts and drivers 5.6. Drivers of market 5.6.1. Fuel price 5.6.2. Fuel availability 5.6.3. Efficiency 5.6.4. Cost of government subsidy 5.6.5. Traffic congestion 5.6.6. Parking congestion 5.6.7. Urbanization 5.6.8. Air pollution 5.6.9. Government regulation 5.6.10. Personal responsibility 5.6.11. Total cost of ownership 5.6.12. Aging populations 5.6.13. Living in apartments 5.6.14. Negative factors 5.6.15. Bans in Malaysia and elsewhere?
6. ELECTRIC SCOOTERS 6.1. Market dynamics 6.2. Dominated by East Asia for the next decade 6.2.1. Brazil 6.2.2. China 6.2.3. Europe 6.2.4. France 6.2.5. Germany 6.2.6. India 6.2.7. Japan 6.2.8. Taiwan 6.2.9. Korea 6.3. Folding scooters and energy harvesting
7. ELECTRIC MOTORCYCLES 7.1. Tipping point for e-motorcycles and e-maxi scooters 7.2. Three wheelers 7.2.1. Announced in May 2016 7.2.2. Announced in late 2016 7.3. Barriers to adoption 7.4. Timelines: technology and markets 7.5. Forecasts: units, price, market value 2018-2028 7.6. E-motorcycle market share 7.7. Basis of forecasts: e-motorcycles etc. 7.8. Components and voltage trends 7.9. Performance/price compromises by category 7.10. Manufacturers by country 7.11. Cost trend vs conventional alternatives 7.12. Comparison of 59 models of e-motorcycle and similar vehicle from 39 manufacturers