Novuna Business Finance: Small business growth forecasts fall in every industry sector

LONDON, Oct. 2, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- New findings from the Business Barometer study by Novuna Business Finance examine the percentage of enterprises that forecast growth every quarter.

The percentage of small business owners predicting growth has fallen for the fourth consecutive Quarter to a new five-year low (25%) – and in every industry sector, the percentage of enterprises predicting growth is down on the start of the year – according to new tracking research from Novuna Business Finance.

Following last summer's General Election bounce, the percentage of small businesses predicting growth has fallen from 35% to 25% over the last 12-months. The new figures for Q4 2025 represent the lowest point for growth predictions since the outbreak of the Covid Pandemic in spring 2020.

In every industry sector, the percentage of small businesses predicting growth is down on the position at the start of the year.

• Growth forecasts in construction (17%) are at their lowest point since Q2 2024.
• In retail, there are no signs of the Christmas countdown boost to business confidence of recent years. For 2025, the percentage of small business owners predicting growth is flat on the summer months, and significantly down on the start of the year (25% Vs 33% in Q1 2025).
• The hospitality and leisure sector sees the percentage of small businesses predicting growth (23%) fall to its lowest level since Q1 2021.
• The percentage of business owners predicting growth in the agriculture sector has halved since the start of the year (falling from 40% to 19%) – and now stands at its lowest level since Q4 2022.
• Despite the extremely challenging market conditions, growth forecasts in the manufacturing sector remain relatively flat on Q3 (25%) and are down only slightly on the start of 2025 (27%).

Jo Morris, Head of Insight at Novuna Business Finance, comments: "Whilst small business growth forecasts are down this year, the underlying concern is the ongoing slide over consecutive quarters. Last July there were signs of optimism, an 'Election bounce' perhaps, as the percentage of enterprises predicting growth rose to 35% having been locked at the early 30 mark for a number of years. The value of our decade-long tracking research indicates that developments in 2025 are significant: this spring, the percentage predicting growth dropped below 30% for the first time in years and, since then, it has continued to fall."