WORST FULL-YEAR PERIOD FOR SMALL BUSINESS GROWTH FORECASTS SINCE 2020 ACCORDING TO NOVUNA BUSINESS FINANCE RESEARCH

LONDON, Oct. 9, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- 2026 is the first time in more than a decade that the percentage of small businesses predicting growth has remained below 30% for a full 12-month period, according to research from Novuna Business Finance.

Nationally, 26% of UK small businesses say they are forecasting growth for the final three months of 2026, with 50% forecasting no change in trading outlook - and 23% of enterprises fearing they will either contract or struggle to survive the winter months, research from Novuna Business Finance reveals.

These new findings, for the period October to December 2026, come at a time of economic volatility, with the average price of diesel rising above £2 a litre for the first time and growing concern over the impact of government borrowing on inflation and interest rates. Add to this, many small businesses are also worried about what could be announced in the Budget later this month – with the new Novuna Business Finance poll revealing that 53% of small businesses said further hikes to National Insurance would negatively impact the growth outlook and finances of their business – with 44% also worried about the impact of potential rises in Corporation Tax.

The Business Barometer study from Novuna Business Finance – which polls a nationally representative sample of 1,000 business owners - has tracked small business growth forecasts every quarter since 2014. In mid-2025, the percentage of small businesses predicting growth dipped below the 30% level for the first time since the Covid lockdown era (Q1 2021) but, since that moment in 2025, small business growth forecasts have never bounced back above 30%, remaining in the 20s for seven consecutive quarters.

Jo Morris, Head of Insight at Novuna Business Finance comments:"We were surprised to see small business growth forecasts fall below the 30% level during summer 2025, but the real concern since then is it hasn't bounced back to its usual level in the mid-thirties. 2026 is the first year on record in the Business Barometer in which the percentage of small businesses predicting growth has stayed at around 26% for the whole year. The challenges seem most profound among younger and start-up businesses, with only 17% predicting growth for the final three months of 2026. More established enterprises remain relatively resilient."