Carbon-Free Europe Releases New Energy Systems Modelling

New study analyses Europe's progress towards carbon neutrality using cutting-edge energy systems models to evaluate the latest changes in energy policy and technology costs

BRUSSELS, June 8, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Carbon-Free Europe (CFE) released its latest Annual Decarbonisation Perspective in partnership with Evolved Energy Research, which provides annual insights into Europe's progress towards carbon neutrality by using cutting-edge energy systems models to evaluate the latest changes in energy policy and technology costs.

This year's analysis delivers guidance on current EU policies including the Net-Zero Industry Act, Electricity Market Design reform, National Energy and Climate Plans, investment strategy for the Green Deal Industrial Plan, and 2040 targets. Results outline the technology-inclusive direction Europe must pursue in order to achieve climate commitments. 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine underscored the energy supply and price crisis that comes as a result of Europe's reliance on fossil fuels. CFE's analysis demonstrates how the EU's Fit for 55 and REPowerEU have laid the groundwork to quit Russian natural gas and outlines a path forward to accelerate the energy transition while ensuring energy sovereignty in Europe.

Key Takeaways

1. Ukraine can become a unique contributor of both clean electricity and hydrogen to the rest of Europe, adding almost 100 GWs of new wind and solar by 2050, or almost 20% of today's EU renewable capacity.
2. The EU will need to build new infrastructure–electricity grids, hydrogen pipelines, and CO₂ pipelines–at unprecedented rates to sustain a clean energy economy, requiring faster siting, permitting, and financing of projects.
3. It is imperative for the EU to facilitate near-term financing and RD&D support for innovative technologies necessary for long-term decarbonisation.
4. Encouraging flexibility (e.g. through Electricity Market Design reform and updating rate design to account for system-wide costs) is critical to the reliable and affordable operations of a clean power grid.
5. Some countries will max out the usage of their renewable resource potential, underscoring the importance of long-term planning for resource constraints and land availability.

"Carbon-Free Europe's Annual Decarbonisation Perspective underscores that Europe is capable of meeting its climate and energy goals without regressing to fossil fuels despite the current energy and cost crisis," said CFE co-founder Lindsey Walter. "As policymakers develop and finalise components of the GDIP, they should prioritise the technology-inclusive approach our modelling outlines to ensure Europe not only secures its energy independence, but also cements its global competitiveness in the clean energy marketplace."

"An efficient, effective path to net-zero by 2050 will rest on balancing short and long-term strategic planning in the EU," said CFE Senior Research Advisor Isabelle Chan. "As countries work toward embedding new climate targets within their NECP revisions, such as under the Fit for 55 package and REPowerEU, they must also take into account renewable resource potential and quality, societal barriers, land-use constraints, and transboundary energy flows with neighbouring regions in order to be successful. Carbon-Free Europe's latest modelling analysis underscores the importance of this approach and outlines the steps Europe's climate leaders must take to meet this challenge head on."

Last year, Carbon-Free Europe released its first energy systems modelling, which identified five different pathways for the EU and UK to reach their 2050 net-zero emissions commitments.

Notes to Editors:

Carbon-Free Europe

Carbon-Free Europe is working to galvanise support across Europe for an ambitious decarbonisation agenda and is driving efforts to innovate and modernise European energy systems. Through a combination of cutting-edge research and advocacy, the organisation seeks to encourage national governments to deploy every clean energy technology necessary for the world to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 at the latest.

For further information, technical details on the modelling, or interviews with Lindsey Walter, please contact Kreab at + 44 (0)7766 990075 or soyama@kreab.com.