US$350 Trillion Wealth Shift by 2050, But Current AI Boom Risks US$13 trillion Correction

LONDON, Feb. 17, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- An era defining technological transition driven by six advanced technologies could generate a US$350 trillion shift in global wealth by 2050, transforming politics, economics and societies. But today's artificial intelligence models are unlikely to underpin that future, with energy and resource demands triggering potential market corrections of c.US$13 trillion.

These findings presented in a new report, Technologies Shaping the Future, launched at the AI Impact Summit in Delhi by the Institute of Strategic Intelligence and Intervention (ISII). The report examines what it describes as the emerging "Civilisational Transition, Strategic Competition, and the New Architecture of Power."

The report argues the world is already undergoing a systemic shift comparable to the Industrial Revolution, a period marked by intensifying strategic rivalry. The U.S. has moved from collaboration to a competition, reshaping alliances and accelerating geopolitical fragmentation.

• Six systemic technologies are driving a global transformation - artificial intelligence, quantum computing, fusion energy, nanotechnology, gene editing and extended reality. Together they redefine computation, energy, materials, longevity and even the perception of reality itself.
• The United States and China dominate across five key metrics of technological power, competing intensely at both national and corporate levels. While the U.S. leads in commercialisation and ecosystem strength, China's long-term scientific planning and scale—supported by its vast domestic market—position it as a potential long-term leader.
• The report suggests a third axis could emerge. The European Union, United Kingdom and India together represent 2 billion people and collectively exceed both the U.S. and China in scientific depth, STEM talent and diplomatic reach, offering the possibility of a more collaborative global model.
• US$27 trillion is concentrated in the world's 20 largest A.I.-focused technology companies, representing c.20% of global equity value; within this, the top five U.S. hyperscalers account for c.US$17 trillion - about one-quarter of the S&P 500 - and plan over US$700 billion in 2026 AI infrastructure capex.
• However, current AI models are increasingly energy unsustainable. Some projections suggest AI could consume 14% of U.S. electricity by 2030 and nearly 28% by 2040, up from 3% today. Without radical efficiency gains or new energy breakthroughs, these demands risk crowding out other economic uses.
• Using an evolutionary analogy, the report suggests that current A.I. systems may resemble wolves forced to adapt, Neanderthals awaiting replacement, or dinosaurs vulnerable to extinction from their own resource intensity and external shocks.
• Future breakthroughs could unlock an era of abundance through A.I. enabling cross-domain innovation, quantum computing solving previously intractable problems, nanotechnology replacing critical materials, gene editing reshaping biology, fusion transforming energy, and extended reality redefining learning and productivity.

These changes herald the age of "cognitive empires", where state-corporate systems deploy algorithms rather than armies to shape domestic and global influence. The report ultimately foresees a systems age in which machine-driven discovery accelerates beyond human intermediation.

The report argues that capital markets must move beyond pricing individual firms and begin evaluating entire technology-enabled systems that form the organising substrate of the Information Age and countries must act to preserve sovereignty.

"Geopolitics, science, technology and markets are underwriting a systemic transformation of civilisation - yet markets are behaving as if they are merely pricing companies," said Ketan Patel, Chair of ISII and Force for Good. "Which countries, coalitions and companies prevail is not yet predetermined in one of the most consequential periods in history."

The coming decade will determine whether the US$350 trillion transition delivers unprecedented, shared prosperity or destabilising volatility.

About ISII

The Institute of Strategic Intelligence and Intervention (ISII), an initiative of Force for Good, generates strategic insight at the intersection of geopolitics, technology and capital to support stable and sovereign transitions into the Information Era.

The AI Impact Summit 2026 Report Launch Panel. The panel Great Powers in the Age of AI and Cognitive Systems was held on 17 February 2026, led by Ketan Patel, Force for Good, with Glenn Gaffney, CIA Director for Science and Technology, Garry Jacobs, The World Academy of Art & Science, Shaurya Doval, India Foundation.

For further information:
Lesley Whittle – Lesley.Whittle@isii.global; www.ISII.global.