LONDON, January 19, 2017 /PRNewswire/ --
Traders on the Smarkets betting exchange believe that there is a 20% chance United States President-elect Donald Trump might not see out his initial four-year term.
Smarkets has a market on whether the House of Representatives will pass articles of impeachment against Trump in his first term as president, and the current price of 'Yes' is 4/1, or a 20% implied probability.
Those odds are around the same that Trump, who takes office on Friday, had to win the presidency in the weeks leading up to November's controversial election against Hillary Clinton.
For 'Yes' to be the right selection, the market does not need Trump to actually be impeached, just for the House of Representatives to pass articles of impeachment against him, much like those passed against Bill Clinton in 1998. Clinton was never removed from office.
In light of recent reports that Trump will be sued for defamation, there has been more action in the market with traders favouring the 'Yes' side of the contract.
Smarkets is also offering markets on some of Trump's pledges for his first 100 days up until the end of April, which are often viewed as a key period during a president's term.
The President-elect said that he would repeal and replace 'Obamacare', although 'No' is favourite in this market at a 59% implied probability.
Traders are, however, confident that the Republican will follow through on his promise to withdraw from the TransPacific Partnership, with the best price available on 'Yes' 83%.
Trump has also vowed to name China a currency manipulator on his first day in office, although reports to the contrary suggest that could be a promise he doesn't keep. Implied probabilities on Wednesday morning were 67% for 'Yes' and 33% for 'No'.
You can find Smarkets's US political offering at https://smarkets.com/politics/world.
Notes to Editors
Launched in 2010, Smarkets is one of the world's leading betting exchanges that makes trading on events secure, efficient and exciting. Forged from trading principles found within the financial markets, Smarkets brings intelligent betting to the forefront of an age-old industry.
Headquartered in London, Smarkets has processed over £3 billion worth of transactions for customers across the company's licensed and regulated markets and continues to grow rapidly because of its industry-leading odds and commission on sporting and political markets.
The company was founded in 2008 by a team of finance and software engineering professionals and is backed by T-Venture and Passion Capital.
The platform offers unparalleled value that combines pioneering technology with a focus on transparency and treating the customer fairly.