AMSTERDAM, Netherlands, May 24, 2018 /PRNewswire/ --
Fulham and Aston Villa will compete in the end-of-season finale for the financial windfall that is promotion to the Premier League. Using both the Euro Club Index (ECI*) and Euro Player Index (EPI*), Remiqz shows that Fulham go into the 170-million-pound game as favourites to win promotion
The bookies have Fulham as favourites to be promoted (57% chance). Looking at the ECI values of both teams, we also conclude that Fulham is slightly favourite to Aston Villa (53% chance of promotion). However, it all depends on the starting line-ups. Looking at the EPI-values of the predicted starting line-ups, the gap between Fulham (2944) and Aston Villa (2627) is even larger, with 8 out of 11 positions dominated by Fulham. Hence, the Cottagers are even more favourite than the bookies suggest, with a 62% chance of condemning The Villans to another season of Championship football.
At stake is an estimated £170, made up of broadcast deals, sponsorship deals and increased commercial income.
To put this into a financial perspective, Remiqz looked at the transfer fees spent by last year's promoted clubs Brighton & Hove Albion, Newcastle United and Huddersfield Town. Compared to clubs from the top-5 European competitions, we conclude that newly promoted Premier League teams spend roughly as much as the sub-top clubs in Spain, Germany, Italy and France.
Moreover, Brighton & Hove Albion, Newcastle United and Huddersfield Town have trouble converting their transfer budget into on-pitch quality. Their average EPI-value only exceeds those of the French sub-top clubs, indicating that Italian, German and Spanish clubs with similar budgets are able to attract better players. We conclude that winning the 170-million-pound game could potentially mean an even higher increase in sporting quality if the money is spent wisely.
- These expectations are not to be used as betting advice.
* The Euro Club Index is a ranking of football teams, which shows their relative playing strength at a given point in time. Please see https://www.euroclubindex.com/ for a full explantion of the methodology.
The Euro Player Index is a ranking of individual players, which objectively measures the added value of each individual player to the overall team performance. This is done by looking at the change in the team's winning odds during the period the player was on the pitch.