Overstory Unveils First AI Models to Predict Power Outages and Wildfires with Tree-level Precision

Utilities are shifting from a detect-and-react mindset to one anchored on prevention. New AI models give operators the foresight to act before outages and ignitions occur.

• Overstory's new Outage Model and Ignition Model identify the specific trees, shrubs, and utility assets most likely to start the next wildfire or result in a power outage, giving operators a prioritized list of exactly what to address before an incident occurs.
• Overstory Scenarios enables utilities to compare the cost and potential risk reduction of any resilience program in real time, ensuring operational budgets are directed to the highest-impact work.

AMSTERDAM, April 21, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Overstory, the leading grid resilience platform trusted by 6 of the 10 largest utilities in North America, today announced the industry's first AI models that predict where outages and utility-caused wildfires are most likely to start. The new Ignition and Outage Models mark a shift from paper maps and subjective data to predictive scenario planning, giving operators a prioritized view of the exact work that will prevent the most harm per dollar spent.

Utilities are in a moment of profound transformation. Surging costs, more severe storms, and escalating wildfire risk are converging on an industry already stretched thin — forcing operators to get smarter about every dollar spent and every mile of network they protect. For the past seven years, utilities have trusted Overstory to design programs that reduce the vegetation and wildfire risk across their network. Today's release extends that work, giving operators the ability to model a range of scenarios to predict where the risks are greatest, what it would cost to address, and which actions can reduce it most efficiently.

Built on years of identifying hazards, new models predict outages & ignitions

Since its founding in 2018, Overstory has released a series of innovative models that analyze satellite data and aerial imagery to determine tree height, tree health, and ground fuels across utility networks. Trained across millions of miles and extensively validated by certified arborists, these models give utilities a data-backed view of vegetation and fuel risk at every span, down to the individual tree or shrub.

Today's release adds a new layer: by incorporating a utility's historical outages and ignitions alongside factors like asset age and weather data, the models can identify the specific interventions most likely to prevent the next incident, whether that's removing a dying tree, mowing dry grass around a pole, or replacing an aging asset in a high-ignition-risk corridor.

From paper maps to dynamic scenario modeling

Overstory Scenarios equips utilities to dynamically model resilience programs to tackle wildfire, asset and vegetation risks across their networks. For decades, utilities have met growing risk by deploying more resources — a logical response given the tools available at the time. But as costs continue to climb, that path is no longer tenable. Forward-thinking utilities and regulators are calling for a more predictive, data-driven approach: one that addresses more risk within the budgets they have.

Overstory Scenarios bridges that gap. Teams can design risk-based programs, explore alternative scenarios, and weigh tradeoffs between cost and risk reduction. Analysis that once took weeks can now happen in real-time, helping utilities see where risk lies, what it costs to address, and how to reduce the most risk with every dollar spent.

"For years, utilities have been asked to do more with less while storms and wildfires grow in frequency and severity. What utilities need now is foresight: the ability to act before an outage or ignition occurs. That's what these models make possible for the first time"

Fiona Spruill, CEO, Overstory

With this intelligence on hand, utilities can continue to deliver on their enduring promise: safe, reliable, and affordable power.

For more information, visit overstory.com.

About Overstory:
Overstory is the enterprise grid resilience platform helping utilities prevent outages and wildfires. Using satellite imagery and proprietary AI models, Overstory analyzes vegetation risk and fuel conditions across a utility's network, surfacing the highest-impact interventions and the tradeoffs behind them. Built for the unique operational reality of each utility, Overstory helps teams direct every dollar to areas of highest risk to keep communities safe. Overstory is trusted by 6 of the 10 largest utilities in North America and backed by Blume Equity, Energy Impact Partners, B Capital, and Semapa Next. Headquartered in Boston and Amsterdam.

Media contact:
Cait Harding
VP of Marketing
cait.harding@overstory.com