Lord Ashcroft Poll of Marginal Seats

LONDON, May 24, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --

Labour are enjoying a bigger swing from the Conservatives in key marginal seats than in Britain as a whole, according to new polling from Lord Ashcroft to be unveiled at the Conservative Home Spring Conference in London today.

The research, conducted in 26 constituencies on the Conservative-Labour battleground, shows a 6.5% swing away from the Tories - enough for Labour to topple 83 Tory MPs if the result were repeated at an election.

More than 26,000 voters were interviewed by telephone: 1,000 in each constituency surveyed. Full data for each seat will be published on LordAshcroftPolls.com at 1.30pm on Saturday 24 May. This is the first in a series of battleground polls through which Lord Ashcroft will regularly track progress in the marginals until the general election in May 2015.

The poll found an overall Labour lead of 12 points, with UKIP on 18% - though results varied widely between constituencies.

Despite the Labour lead, fewer than 3 in 10 voters in the battleground seats said they would rather see Ed Miliband as Prime Minister than David Cameron. 57% either said they were satisfied with Cameron's performance, or that they were dissatisfied but preferred him to the alternative.

The research includes the following findings:

• Voting intention: Lab 41%, Con 29%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 18%. Swings to Labour ranged from 2% (Morecambe & Lunesdale) to 10% (Derby North).
• UKIP vote shares ranged from 3% (Hampstead & Kilburn) to 30% (Walsall North). UKIP were in second place in four seats: Thurrock, Dudley North, Great Grimsby and Walsall North.
• The Liberal Democrats' vote share had fallen by more than half in these seats since the last general election. 2010 Lib Dem voters were now more likely to say they would vote Labour than for Nick Clegg's party - though nearly a fifth were undecided. 13% of Labour's vote on the Conservative-Labour battleground came from people who had voted Lib Dem in 2010.
• 29% said they were satisfied with the job David Cameron was doing as Prime Minister. A further 28% said they were dissatisfied but would prefer him to Ed Miliband. 29% (including only 66% of Labour voters) said they would prefer to see Miliband as Prime Minister. 85% of Conservative defectors to UKIP would rather see Cameron than Miliband in 10 Downing Street.
• Just over half (56%), including a majority of Labour voters (51%), thought the economy would do well over the next year for the country as a whole. 59% were optimistic for themselves and their families.
• 35% said they wanted to see a Labour government after the next election and 25% a Conservative government. 22% said they would prefer a coalition - either Conservative-Lib Dem (11%) or Labour-Lib Dem (11%). Lib Dem voters who want a coalition were evenly divided between governing with the Conservatives or with Labour. Among Conservative-UKIP switchers, 61% prefer a Tory majority and only 11% want to see Labour in government.

Commenting on the results, Lord Ashcroft said:

"Like all polls, this is a snapshot not a prediction. There is still a year to go, and as I have found in previous polling, half the voters say they may change their minds before election day. 

"But the message is clear - even though people are optimistic about the economy and prefer David Cameron to Ed Miliband, Labour are still ahead in the marginal seats where it matters."

ENDS

Notes to Editors 

• 26,025 adults were interviewed by telephone in 26 constituencies between 31 March and 18 May 2014. Results have been weighted to be representative of all adults in those constituencies.
• The survey was conducted in the following constituencies:
  Amber Valley, Broxtowe, Cardiff North, Hendon, Great Yarmouth, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Morecambe & Lunesdale, North Warwickshire, Thanet South, Thurrock, Sherwood, Stockton South, Waveney, Wolverhampton South West, Bolton West, Birmingham Edgbaston, Derby North, Dudley North, Halifax, Hampstead & Kilburn, Great Grimsby, Morley & Outwood, Southampton Itchen, Telford, Walsall North, Wirral South.
• Full data will be available at LordAshcroftPolls.com at 1.30pm on Saturday 24 May.
• Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, author and philanthropist. He is founder and Chairman of the Board of Crimestoppers, a member of the Board of the Imperial War Museum, Chairman of the Trustees of Ashcroft Technology Academy, Chancellor of Anglia Ruskin University and Treasurer of the International Democrat Union. From 2005 to 2010 he was Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party.
• His political books and research papers include Smell The Coffee (2005), Minority Verdict, What Future For Labour?, What Future For The Liberal Democrats? (2010), Crime, Punishment & The People, Project Blueprint, The Leadership Factor (2011), Degrees of Separation, The Armed Forces & Society, Blue Collar Tories, Project Red Alert, They're Thinking What We're Thinking: Understanding The UKIP Temptation (2012), What Are The Liberal Democrats For?, Marginal Territory, Are You Serious: Boris, The Tories And The Voters; Small Island: Public Opinion And The Politics Of Immigration (2013), Cameron's Caledonian Conundrum (2013), and Europe on Trial (2014).

View the poll : http://www.multivu.prnewswire.com/mnr/prne/operations/Marginal-Seats-Poll.pdf