BEIJING, Feb. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- In 2021 Q4, respondents to the Cheung Kong Investor Sentiment Survey remained conservative in expectations for China's A-shares with 60.2% of the respondents believing that A-shares will rise in the next 12 months, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the 2021 Q3 survey and a decrease of 7.3 percentage points from the same period last year.
Respondents also lowered their expectations for real estate compared to late 2020. 55.9% of respondents believe that housing prices in first- and second-tier cities will rise in the next 12 months, down 13.5 percentage points from the survey at the end of 2020. The expected return on home prices is 1.4%, down 2.2 percentage points from the end of 2020.
Respondents' conservative sentiment towards the market may come from concerns about long-term economic growth. Only 58.9% of respondents believe that GDP growth will exceed 5% in the next five years, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points from the previous period. The average expected growth rate of GDP was 5.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period.
Similar to the previous quarter, financial practitioners and retail investors had very different sentiments on investment and the macro economy. Financial practitioners are more optimistic than retail investors. Regarding the trend of A-shares in the next 12 months, 52.8% of retail investors believe that they will rise, compared to 83.5% of financial practitioners. The expected return of A-shares in the next 12 months for retail investors are -3.2%, while financial practitioners are 6.6%.
The Cheung Kong Investor Sentiment Survey (CKISS) is a survey on investor sentiment and expectations in the capital market, co-sponsored by Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business' (CKGSB) Center for Investment Research and the Business Scholars Program. It is led by Doctor Liu Jing, CKGSB Professor of Accounting and Finance, and CKGSB researcher Chen Hongya.
The first survey was conducted in January 2018 and targeted over 60 outstanding entrepreneurs. In August 2018, the survey expanded its scope to 13 major Chinese cities and conducted on a quarterly basis with approximately 2,500 valid samples, including 1,900 samples from individual investors and 600 from institutional investors. The Center for Investment Research at CKGSB aims to offer a more comprehensive understanding of the capital markets in China and abroad using CKGSB's unique theoretical & practical perspective.
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SOURCE Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business (CKGSB)