DUBLIN, Ireland, July 11, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --
Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/qh5f5l/global) has announced the addition of the "Global Gasification Trends 2012 - 2050: The Adoption of Piped Natural Gas Around the World" report to their offering.
New Report on Penetration of Natural Gas to Households forecasts 15.7% increase in new connections by 2030
StatPlan Energy's latest report, "Global Gasification Trends 2012 - 2050" forecasts a 15.7% increase in gas connections in Europe by 2030. This equates to 20.3 million additional connections in 17 years, to reach a total of 145.2 million households.
"In that time, many gas sources which we refer to today as "non-conventional" will have become very much conventional. All analysts anticipate significant competition for LNG which is the current solution for many European countries, but we also see a significantly increased customer base" says Euan Blauvelt, Technical Director of StatPlan Energy.
New residential connections are reliant on what is happening in the development market, but this in turn is conditioned by customer demand. StatPlan's forecasts are built out of a series of metrics including population growth, household size and existing levels of gas penetration into households. Any of these metrics taken on their own have substantially underestimated connection growth over the years so are proven to be unreliable as single indicators of future markets. The table below shows how history (1990 to 2010) confirms StatPlan's approach of combining these variables.
Around the world, the challenges to the development of significant new connections are very different. The economics of establishing a gas distribution network are not always favourable. Countries looking to establish piped natural gas, where before containerised gas has been the norm, face financial and practical challenges, but in Europe infrastructure is often there.
Euan Blauvelt continues, "this analysis is significant for any business that relies on residential gasification for growth, both from the angles of infrastructure and appliances. Our report also shows how the global footprint of the market will change through to 2050. We see similar dynamics, but a very different picture, when we consider household electrification".
A simple illustration
Suppose you are selling a gas appliance with 60% penetration in Europe in 1990. Your market then would be 73.6 million households, your share would be 44.2 million households. But what to expect come 2010? Based on a flat forecast based on population increase, you could expect 3.8 million new users based on a continued share of 60%. But the real figure which StatPlan GGT would have shown would have been an extra 28.6 million new connections, totalling 72.8 million, a multiple of 7 over the population based figure.
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