Accessibility Statement Skip Navigation
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • +44 (0)20 7454 5110
  • Client Login
  • Send a Release
Return to PR Newswire homepage
  • News
  • Products
  • Contact
When typing in this field, a list of search results will appear and be automatically updated as you type.

Searching for your content...

No results found. Please change your search terms and try again.
  • News in Focus
      • Browse News Releases

      • All Public Company News
      • All Multimedia News
      • View All News Releases

      • Regulatory News

      • D/A/CH Regulatory News
      • UK Regulatory News
      • View All Regulatory News

  • Business & Money
      • Auto & Transportation

      • Aerospace & Defense
      • Air Freight
      • Airlines & Aviation
      • Automotive
      • Maritime & Shipbuilding
      • Railroads & Intermodal Transportation
      • Supply Chain/Logistics
      • Transportation, Trucking & Railroad
      • Travel
      • Trucking & Road Transportation
      • View All Auto & Transportation

      • Business Technology

      • Blockchain
      • Broadcast Tech
      • Computer & Electronics
      • Computer Hardware
      • Computer Software
      • Data Analytics
      • Electronic Commerce
      • Electronic Components
      • Electronic Design Automation
      • Financial Technology
      • High Tech Security
      • Internet Technology
      • Nanotechnology
      • Networks
      • Peripherals
      • Semiconductors
      • View All Business Technology

      • Entertain­ment & Media

      • Advertising
      • Art
      • Books
      • Entertainment
      • Film & Motion Picture
      • Magazines
      • Music
      • Publishing & Information Services
      • Radio & Podcast
      • Television
      • View All Entertain­ment & Media

      • Financial Services & Investing

      • Accounting News & Issues
      • Acquisitions, Mergers & Takeovers
      • Banking & Financial Services
      • Bankruptcy
      • Bond & Stock Ratings
      • Conference Call Announcements
      • Contracts
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Dividends
      • Earnings
      • Earnings Forecasts & Projections
      • Financing Agreements
      • Insurance
      • Investments Opinions
      • Joint Ventures
      • Mutual Funds
      • Private Placement
      • Real Estate
      • Restructuring & Recapitalisation
      • Sales Reports
      • Shareholder Activism
      • Shareholder Meetings
      • Stock Offering
      • Stock Split
      • Venture Capital
      • View All Financial Services & Investing

      • General Business

      • Awards
      • Commercial Real Estate
      • Corporate Expansion
      • Earnings
      • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
      • Human Resource & Workforce Management
      • Licensing
      • New Products & Services
      • Obituaries
      • Outsourcing Businesses
      • Overseas Real Estate (non-US)
      • Personnel Announcements
      • Real Estate Transactions
      • Residential Real Estate
      • Small Business Services
      • Socially Responsible Investing
      • Surveys, Polls & Research
      • Trade Show News
      • View All General Business

  • Science & Tech
      • Consumer Technology

      • Artificial Intelligence
      • Blockchain
      • Cloud Computing/Internet of Things
      • Computer Electronics
      • Computer Hardware
      • Computer Software
      • Consumer Electronics
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Data Analytics
      • Electronic Commerce
      • Electronic Gaming
      • Financial Technology
      • Mobile Entertainment
      • Multimedia & Internet
      • Peripherals
      • Social Media
      • STEM (Science, Tech, Engineering, Math)
      • Supply Chain/Logistics
      • Wireless Communications
      • View All Consumer Technology

      • Energy & Natural Resources

      • Alternative Energies
      • Chemical
      • Electrical Utilities
      • Gas
      • General Manufacturing
      • Mining
      • Mining & Metals
      • Oil & Energy
      • Oil & Gas Discoveries
      • Utilities
      • Water Utilities
      • View All Energy & Natural Resources

      • Environ­ment

      • Conservation & Recycling
      • Environmental Issues
      • Environmental Policy
      • Environmental Products & Services
      • Green Technology
      • Natural Disasters
      • View All Environ­ment

      • Heavy Industry & Manufacturing

      • Aerospace & Defence
      • Agriculture
      • Chemical
      • Construction & Building
      • General Manufacturing
      • HVAC (Heating, Ventilation & Air-Conditioning)
      • Machinery
      • Machine Tools, Metalworking & Metallurgy
      • Mining
      • Mining & Metals
      • Paper, Forest Products & Containers
      • Precious Metals
      • Textiles
      • Tobacco
      • View All Heavy Industry & Manufacturing

      • Telecomm­unications

      • Carriers & Services
      • Mobile Entertainment
      • Networks
      • Peripherals
      • Telecommunications Equipment
      • Telecommunications Industry
      • VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
      • Wireless Communications
      • View All Telecomm­unications

  • Lifestyle & Health
      • Consumer Products & Retail

      • Animals & Pets
      • Beers, Wines & Spirits
      • Beverages
      • Bridal Services
      • Cannabis
      • Cosmetics & Personal Care
      • Fashion
      • Food & Beverages
      • Furniture & Furnishings
      • Home Improvement
      • Household, Consumer & Cosmetics
      • Household Products
      • Jewellery
      • Non-Alcoholic Beverages
      • Office Products
      • Organic Food
      • Product Recalls
      • Restaurants
      • Retail
      • Supermarkets
      • Toys
      • View All Consumer Products & Retail

      • Entertain­ment & Media

      • Advertising
      • Art
      • Books
      • Entertainment
      • Film & Motion Picture
      • Magazines
      • Music
      • Publishing & Information Services
      • Radio & Podcast
      • Television
      • View All Entertain­ment & Media

      • Health

      • Biometrics
      • Biotechnology
      • Clinical Trials & Medical Discoveries
      • Dentistry
      • FDA Approval
      • Fitness/Wellness
      • Health Care & Hospitals
      • Health Insurance
      • Infection Control
      • International Medical Approval
      • Medical Equipment
      • Medical Pharmaceuticals
      • Mental Health
      • Pharmaceuticals
      • Supplementary Medicine
      • View All Health

      • Sports

      • General Sports
      • Outdoors, Camping & Hiking
      • Sporting Events
      • Sports Equipment & Accessories
      • View All Sports

      • Travel

      • Amusement Parks & Tourist Attractions
      • Gambling & Casinos
      • Hotels & Resorts
      • Leisure & Tourism
      • Outdoors, Camping & Hiking
      • Passenger Aviation
      • Travel Industry
      • View All Travel

  • Policy & Public Interest
      • Policy & Public Interest

      • Animal Welfare
      • Corporate Social Responsibility
      • Economic News, Trends & Analysis
      • Education
      • Environmental
      • European Government
      • Labour & Union
      • Natural Disasters
      • Not For Profit
      • Public Safety
      • View All Policy & Public Interest

  • People & Culture
      • People & Culture

      • Aboriginal, First Nations & Native American
      • African American
      • Asian American
      • Children
      • Diversity, Equity & Inclusion
      • Hispanic
      • Lesbian, Gay & Bisexual
      • Men's Interest
      • People with Disabilities
      • Religion
      • Senior Citizens
      • Veterans
      • Women
      • View All People & Culture

  • Overview
  • Distribution
  • Paid Placement
  • Multichannel Amplification
  • Disclosure Services
  • SocialBoost
  • Rooms
    • MediaRoom
    • ESG Rooms
  • AI Tools
  • General Enquiries
  • Media Enquiries
  • Partnerships
  • Hamburger menu
  • Cision PR Newswire UK provides press release distribution, targeting, monitoring, and marketing services
  • Send a Release
    • Phone

    • +44 (0)20 7454 5110 from 8 AM - 5:30 PM GMT

    • ALL CONTACT INFO
    • Contact Us

      +44 (0)20 7454 5110
      from 8 AM - 5:30 PM GMT

  • Client Login
  • Send a Release
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • News in Focus
    • Browse News Releases
    • Regulatory News
  • Business & Money
    • Auto & Transportation
    • Business Technology
    • Entertain­ment & Media
    • Financial Services & Investing
    • General Business
  • Science & Tech
    • Consumer Technology
    • Energy & Natural Resources
    • Environ­ment
    • Heavy Industry & Manufacturing
    • Telecomm­unications
  • Lifestyle & Health
    • Consumer Products & Retail
    • Entertain­ment & Media
    • Health
    • Sports
    • Travel
  • Policy & Public Interest
    • Policy & Public Interest
  • People & Culture
    • People & Culture
  • Client Login
  • Send a Release
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • Overview
  • Distribution
  • Paid Placement
  • Multichannel Amplification
  • Disclosure Services
  • Cision Communications Cloud®
  • AI Tools
  • Client Login
  • Send a Release
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • General Enquiries
  • Media Enquiries
  • Partnerships
  • Client Login
  • Send a Release
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists

CRU: A 'Trade Spat' Could Shave a Percent Off Global Growth

This image opens in the lightbox

News provided by

CRU

02 Aug, 2018, 08:00 GMT

Share this article

Share toX

Share this article

Share toX

LONDON, Aug. 2, 2018 /PRNewswire/ --

Trade news has been both good and bad in recent months, creating increased uncertainty about where global trade policy is heading. Here we show that if the threatened US tariffs go ahead and dent global confidence, a scenario we call a "trade spat", could shave around a percent off global GDP.

This image opens in the lightbox
A ‘trade spat’ could shave a percent off global growth

The effect could be two to three times larger if we assume full retaliation and a bigger confidence crisis. To assess the risks of a trade spat we will be monitoring how economies adjust to the new tariffs, how policies respond to emerging pain points and the geopolitical landscape.

We do not have much "hard" data to point to, but reliable "soft" business indicators are now flashing amber. Overall, the optimism that drove strong growth in 2017 appears to be fading, with trade tensions certainly a contributing factor. Leading us to ask whether global growth will come of its peak fast or slow?

Base case: global growth slows gradually
CRU's view is that global growth slows from 3.1% in 2018 to 2.9% in 2019 and 2.8% in 2020. The narrative that supports this includes: China slows as a result of its ongoing effort to tackle debt and rein in credit growth; the US slows as this year fiscal stimulus abates and the Fed continues raising interest rate; and that the EU slows as the economy cools to its trend growth. Our base case includes the tariffs already implemented - the aluminium and steel tariffs, the first round of US tariffs on China, and the retaliation by China. But the impact of these tariffs is small, less than 0.1% of world GDP. While our base case assumes that trade tensions continue, significant escalation of tensions, remains a downside risk to our forecast.

Trade spat scenarios: global growth slows faster
A trade spat could push the global economy to slow down by more than we expect in the base case. In this section we consider four scenarios, each will illustrate its impact on the pace of growth slowdown.

Read the full story: https://www.crugroup.com/knowledge-and-insights/insights/2018/a-trade-spat-could-shave-a-percent-off-global-growth/ 

Read more about CRU: http://bit.ly/About_CRU 

About CRU

CRU offers unrivalled business intelligence on the global metals, mining and fertilizer industries through market analysis, price assessments, consultancy and events.

Since our foundation by Robert Perlman in 1969, we have consistently invested in primary research and robust methodologies, and developed expert teams in key locations worldwide, including in hard-to-reach markets such as China.

CRU employs over 260 experts and has more than 10 offices around the world, in Europe, the Americas, China, Asia and Australia – our office in Beijing opened in 2004.

When facing critical business decisions, you can rely on our first-hand knowledge to give you a complete view of a commodity market. And you can engage with our experts directly, for the full picture and a personalised response.

CRU – big enough to deliver a high-quality service, small enough to care about all of our customers.

Modal title

Contact PR Newswire

  • +44 (0)20 7454 5110
    from 8 AM - 5:30 PM GMT
  • General Enquiries
  • Media Enquiries
  • Partnerships

Products

  • Content Distribution
  • Multimedia Services
  • Disclosure Services
  • Cision Communications Cloud®

About

  • About PR Newswire
  • About Cision
  • Partnering Opportunities
  • Careers
  • Accessibility Statement
  • APAC
  • APAC - Simplified Chinese
  • APAC - Traditional Chinese
  • Brazil
  • Canada
  • Czech
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Israel
  • Japan
  • Korea
  • Mexico
  • Middle East
  • Middle East - Arabic
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Russia
  • Slovakia
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • United States
  • Vietnam

My Services

  • All News Releases
  • Customer Portal
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • Data Privacy

Do not sell or share my personal information:

  • Submit via Privacy@cision.com 
  • Call Privacy toll-free: 877-297-8921

Contact PR Newswire

Products

About

My Services
  • All News Releases
  • Customer Portal
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
+44 (0)20 7454 5110
from 8 AM - 5:30 PM GMT
  • Terms of Use
  • Privacy Policy
  • Information Security Policy
  • Site Map
  • RSS
  • Cookie Settings
Copyright © 2025 PR Newswire Europe Limited. All Rights Reserved. A Cision company.