Zogby Poll Reveals: Abortion Tough Issue for Hillary Clinton & '06 Congressional Democrats
LOS ANGELES, March 22 /PRNewswire/ --
Federal candidates who make abortion rights an important part of their election platform this year and in 2008 may find themselves swimming against the current of American political thinking, a new Zogby Interactive survey shows.
The survey, commissioned by Associated Television News and The O'Leary Report, included 30,117 respondents in the 48 contiguous states, and was conducted from March 10-14, 2006. It carries a margin of error of +/- 0.6 percentage points.
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20030425/ATNLOGO )
The poll included 20 questions on abortion pertaining to activity on the state or federal level. Analysis of the survey included matching the responses against those respondents who said they'd support the two leading candidates for the 2008 presidential contest: Democrat Senator Hillary Clinton (33%) and Republican Senator John McCain (50%). More analysis was conducted by matching the poll respondents who indicated that they'd support a Democrat (42%) or a Republican (40%) for Congress in the 2006 election.
Pollster John Zogby noted that "while much of the poll's findings suggest Democrats will have trouble gaining a political advantage by using the emotionally charged issue of abortion, voters are still evenly split on whether the U.S. Constitution guarantees a woman's right to choose to have an abortion." Forty-six percent of the respondents agreed that there was a constitutional guarantee while 45% disagreed.
Associated Television News President Brad O'Leary, who commissioned the poll, added that much of the results may "spell disaster for Democrats who try to run on the abortion issue. The abortion issue is this year's political 'third rail' for congressional Democrats and for Hillary Clinton in 2008," said O'Leary. O'Leary speculated that the recent confirmation hearings for Justices Alito and Roberts and may have galvanized undecided voters into the pro-life camp, and noted that 71% of voters disagreed that the Senate should confirm only pro-choice Supreme Court Justices, while just 17% agreed with the statement.
Asked whether respondents favored using a filibuster of Supreme Court nominees because of their position on abortion, only 28% agreed with the tactic, while 59% opposed it.
Abortion may become to Democrats what Social Security was to Republicans during the 1970's and 1980's -- a "third rail" that caused the GOP continual political trouble.
"There is absolutely no way a presidential or a congressional candidate running for office can grow their base if they insist on championing the abortion issue," Mr. O'Leary said. The poll found a majority of respondents on 16 of the 20 questions took an anti-abortion position, including:
- Parental notification laws that were recently upheld by the Supreme
Court (55% support for girls 18 yrs. & younger; 69% for girls 16 yrs.
old & younger; only 36% and 23% disagree respectively)
- Abortion ends a human life (59% agree; 29% disagree)
- The prohibition of federal funds for abortions abroad (69% agree with
the prohibition; 21% disagree)
- Abortion because of the sex of the fetus (86% agree should be illegal;
10% disagree should be illegal)
- Requiring insurance plans to cover abortions where the life of the
mother is not endangered (56% disagree with such a requirement; 12%
agree)
- When life begins (50% believe it begins at conception; 19% believe life
begins at birth)
- A new federal partial-birth abortion bill (50% want to see another
bill; 39% don't want to see another bill)
- Requiring counseling about a mother's options before undergoing an
abortion (55% agree with such a counseling requirement; 37% disagree)
- A 24-hour waiting period (56% agree with waiting period; 37% disagree)
- Federal & state financing of abortions for poor women (51% disagree
with financing; 37% disagree)
- Laws that charge a person who kills a pregnant woman with two murders
(64% agree with such laws; 23% disagree)
The poll results suggest a shift in the electorate away from abortion rights over the past decade, Mr. O'Leary said. They also suggest that congressional Democrats who champion abortion rights could lose as much as 20 percent support from the electorate.
The issue may affect the 2008 presidential contest, the poll shows, as 60% to 80% percent of Hillary Clinton's support on most of the 20 abortion questions clearly comes from those voters who favor abortion rights. Conversely, 75% to 90% percent of those voters who support John McCain take a pro-life position on the questions.
Following are tables on these 20 poll questions and how they break down among voters who say they will support a Republican or Democrat in the 2006 Congressional elections and among Hillary Clinton and John McCain supporters for the 2008 presidential election is attached.
Q11. Do you agree or disagree that a woman's right to choose to have an abortion is guaranteed by the US Constitution?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 46 80 11 40 83 21 47
Disagree 45 9 82 46 8 71 40
Not Sure 10 11 7 14 9 9 14
Q12. Do you agree or disagree that the confirmation of a nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court should be filibustered on the Senate floor because of the nominee's opinion on abortion?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 28 57 2 18 61 7 26
Disagree 59 21 95 66 17 88 54
Not Sure 13 22 3 16 21 6 20
Q13. Do you agree or disagree that nominees to the U.S. Supreme Court should be confirmed only if their position on abortion is pro-choice?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 18 35 2 11 38 5 15
Disagree 71 46 96 78 42 92 68
Not Sure 11 20 2 11 20 4 17
Q14. Do you agree or disagree that states should pass laws to require parental notification in order for a girl under the age of 18 to have an abortion?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 55 23 89 56 22 79 49
Disagree 36 66 7 30 67 14 39
Not Sure 9 12 5 14 11 7 13
Q15. Do you agree or disagree that states should pass laws to require parental notification in order for a girl under the age of 16 to have an abortion?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 69 43 95 73 41 89 63
Disagree 23 43 3 18 45 7 24
Not Sure 9 14 2 10 13 4 13
Q16. The United States prohibits foreign aid money being used for abortions in countries where the abortion is done because of the sex of the fetus. Do you agree or disagree with this prohibition?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 69 48 90 73 47 86 64
Disagree 21 37 6 18 37 10 24
Not Sure 9 15 3 10 16 4 12
Q17. Do you agree or disagree that it should be illegal in the US to have an abortion because of the sex of the fetus?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 86 74 92 87 74 90 85
Disagree 10 18 7 8 18 8 9
Not Sure 4 8 2 5 8 3 6
Q18. Do you agree or disagree that abortion ends a human life?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 59 28 90 62 27 81 53
Disagree 29 55 6 22 57 11 30
Not Sure 12 17 5 16 16 8 17
Q19. In some states, if a pregnant woman is murdered, the person committing the murder is guilty of two murders, the woman and her child. Do you agree or disagree with this law?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 64 67 92 67 36 85 56
Disagree 23 42 4 17 44 8 25
Not Sure 13 21 4 16 20 7 19
Q20. Do you agree or disagree that federal or state governments should finance abortions for poor women?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 37 67 8 29 70 15 38
Disagree 51 19 84 53 17 75 46
Not Sure 12 14 7 18 13 10 16
Q21. Do you agree or disagree that private insurance plans should be required to finance abortions in cases where the woman's life is not endangered?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 33 58 9 26 60 15 32
Disagree 56 27 85 60 25 78 50
Not Sure 12 16 6 15 15 8 18
Q22. Which of the following best describes when you think life begins?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
At conception 50 20 81 51 19 72 45
At 3 months 9 12 6 9 12 7 8
At 6 months 8 14 3 7 13 5 9
At birth 19 35 4 15 37 7 19
Not sure 14 20 6 17 19 9 19
Q23. A. Parents are responsible for the welfare and health of their children. A parent should be notified if their minor daughter is seeking to have an abortion. B. There are lots of reasons why a minor might not want to tell her parents that she is seeking an abortion. There should be no mandatory parental notification for a minor seeking an abortion.
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Statement A 59 27 92 61 26 83 52
Statement B 32 62 4 26 64 10 36
Neither 9 12 4 13 11 6 12
Q24. Two federal judges struck down a law prohibiting partial-birth abortion, which was passed overwhelmingly in Congress and was signed into law by President Bush, because the health of the mother was not included as an exception. Do you agree or disagree that Congress should pass another Partial-Birth Abortion law to make the procedure illegal?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 50 17 85 53 15 76 44
Disagree 39 69 10 32 72 16 42
Not Sure 11 14 6 15 13 8 14
Q25. Do you agree or disagree that a federal law or state laws be passed similar to the one already in place in four states, that would restrict the coverage of abortion in private insurance plans only to cases in which the woman's life is in danger if the pregnancy is carried to term?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 44 16 74 45 15 66 37
Disagree 44 73 15 39 74 22 47
Not Sure 12 12 11 16 11 12 16
Q26. Do you agree or disagree that a federal law or state laws should be enacted mandating that women be given counseling prior to an abortion that includes information on at least one of the following: the purported link between abortion and breast cancer, the ability of a fetus to feel pain, long-term mental health consequences for the woman and/or the availability of services and funding should the woman decide to carry the pregnancy to term?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 55 28 82 57 28 74 50
Disagree 37 63 12 32 64 19 39
Not Sure 8 9 6 11 9 7 11
Q27. Do you agree or disagree that a federal law or state laws should be enacted to require a woman seeking an abortion to wait 24 hours from when she goes for the abortion to when the procedure is performed so that she receives counseling?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 56 30 82 57 29 75 50
Disagree 37 62 12 32 63 19 39
Not Sure 8 8 6 12 8 7 11
Q28. Do you agree or disagree that more state laws should be passed, similar to the recent law passed in Missouri, which allows civil lawsuits to be filed against anyone who helps a teen obtain an abortion without parental consent?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 45 11 82 44 10 70 39
Disagree 48 83 12 44 84 22 52
Not Sure 8 7 7 12 6 8 10
Q29. Abortion rights groups are backing lawsuits against pharmacies who refuse to sell the morning-after pill. Do you agree or disagree that pharmacies and pharmacists be protected against such lawsuits?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Agree 48 18 79 52 17 71 43
Disagree 46 78 15 39 79 22 50
Not Sure 6 4 6 10 4 7 8
Q30. Do you think that the morning-after abortion pill, commercially known as Plan B, should be available over the counter or should it be available only by prescription?
Hypothetical Presidential
2006 Congressional Match up
Total Dem. Rep. Ind. Clinton McCain Undec.
Available over 44 70 18 41 71 25 46
the counter
Available only 31 24 37 32 22 37 28
by prescription
Not available at
all 19 2 37 17 2 29 19
Not sure 7 5 8 10 5 8 8
SOURCE Associated Television News
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