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New Studies Reveal Real Cost of Kyoto Protocol

LONDON, November 7 /PRNewswire/ --

- Research Confirms Blair Suspicion That Economic Growth Significantly Damaged by Kyoto Framework and Emissions Targets

- Kyoto Targets to Lead to Average Rises of 26% in Electricity Prices Across UK, Italy, Germany and Spain

New research published today (7th November 2005) by the International Council for Capital Formation (ICCF) reveals the broad and significant economic repercussions of adopting Kyoto for the UK, Germany, Italy and Spain - and specifically its impact for each nation on energy prices, economic growth (in terms of GDP) and jobs.

The series of in-depth studies analysed the economic and energy implications of meeting emissions reductions defined under the Kyoto Protocol through an emissions trading regime. An assumption was made that the EU emissions trading scheme will be broadened to cover all sectors, including households and transportation. The studies show a significant rise in energy costs for consumers and businesses.

The research revealed that if the four countries meet their Kyoto emission reduction targets in 2010 they face:

- Increasing energy bills: An average increase in electricity prices of 26% and an average increase of 41% of natural gas prices by 2010 (across UK, Germany, Spain and Italy - see full table in notes to editors)

- Significant job losses: Job losses of at least 200,000 in each of Italy, Germany, UK and Spain to meet Kyoto targets by 2010 - rising to as many as 611,000 in Spain in 2010

- Damage to economy: A significant reduction in GDP below base case levels by 2010: 0.8% for Germany (18.5 billion Euros), 3.1% for Spain (26 billion Euros), 2.1% for Italy (27 billion Euros) and 1.1% for the UK (22 billion Euros).

The ICCF research concludes that these consequences would severely damage economic growth and adversely affect standards of living across Europe. Published only days after the Gleneagles Dialogue meeting of the G8 countries in London, the research confirms Prime Minister Tony Blair's view that countries are 'nervous' about emissions targets and 'would not sacrifice economic growth for external agreements'.

The ICCF hope that these findings will contribute to the ongoing debate on how to develop an international framework for tackling climate change - and send a message to the EU Commission as it prepares for the first official Meeting of the Parties of the Kyoto Protocol in Montreal at the end of November.

Dr Margo Thorning, Managing Director of the ICCF, commented:

"The findings of our research support Blair in his recent move away from the "target and timetable" approach to climate policy - and suggest that an alternative approach is urgently needed for both the developing and developed world. A cooperative global approach to reducing emission growth, building on the Asia-Pacific Pact, is more likely to produce real emissions reductions, without damaging economic growth in the EU and elsewhere. "

- For all media enquiries and for a summary of the four reports, please contact ICCF press office on +44-(0)207-618-9100 or +32-2 230-70-20.

- Full copies of all the research are available on

- For more information about the ICCF, please contact Dr. Margo Thorning, ICCF at: Park Leopold, Rue Wiertz 50/28 B-1050 Brussels, BELGIUM, +1-202-468-09-03, . The ICCF can also be reached in Washington DC at 1750 K Street,NW, Suite 400,Washington D.C. 20006.

- Breakdown of impact on energy prices in individual countries:

                    Electricity           Natural Gas
                  2010       2020       2010       2020
    Italy         13%        14%        44%        54%
    UK            35%        34%        46%        57%
    Spain         23%        27%        42%        51%
    Germany       31%        32%        30%        39%
    Average       26%        27%        41%        50%

    Source: Global Insight, Inc.

SOURCE International Council for Capital Formation (ICCF)

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